১লা মার্চ, ২০২১ খ্রিস্টাব্দ, সোমবার

 

DOES SOMALI NEED ELECTRICITY FROM GRAND EHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM?

আপডেট: জুলাই ২৩, ২০২০

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DOES SOMALI NEED ELECTRICITY FROM GRAND EHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM?

 

……..Mohamed Abdullahi Ahmed (Doorshe)
Ethiopia announced in April 2011 that it intends to build four large dams on the Nile, including one of the largest in the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (formerly known as Project X or the Grand Millennium Dam). This huge dam will flood 1,680 square kilometers of forest in northwest Ethiopia, near the Sudan border, and create a reservoir that is nearly twice as large as Lake Tana, Ethiopia’s largest natural lake. Approximately 20,000 people will be resettled for the project. The US$4.6 billion scheme is out of scale for such a poor country; the current cost estimate equals the country’s entire annual budget. The costly project is monopolizing government funding for the energy sector, leaving many worthy projects that would directly address the nation’s high energy poverty underfunded.
The project’s launch came in the midst of the Egyptian revolution, which some observers believe was intended to take advantage of the more powerful nation’s confused political state at a time when the issue of who controls the Nile is heating up. Egypt has long held the majority rights to the Nile – a situation that especially angers Ethiopia, which is the source of 85% of the river’s waters. While there are no known studies about the dam’s impacts on the river’s flow, filling such a huge reservoir (it will hold up to 67 billion cubic meters of water, and could take up to seven years to reach capacity) will certainly impact Egypt, which relies almost totally on the Nile for its water supply. Development Today magazine reports that the Nile flow into Egypt could be cut by 25% during the filling period. Many fear the project could set off a water war in the region, and indeed, in mid-2013, tensions flared dramatically. To diffuse the tensions, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan signed a “Declaration of Principles” on the 23rd of May 2015 that sets out the rights and obligations of each of the three countries related to the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
The potential for conflict is probably the main reason international funders have shown no interest in supporting the project. The government of Ethiopia is partially financing the dam; it has devised a scheme to sell bonds for the project, is raising taxes and is encouraging Ethiopians to support the dam with their paychecks. The dam is scheduled to be commissioned in 2017.
The dam’s construction contract was given (without competitive bidding) to Italy’s Salini, which is also building the controversial Gibe III Dam on Ethiopia’s Omo River.
The project also stands to benefit from grid extension funded by the World Bank, which is part of the East Africa Power Pool. The World Bank has so far committed US$ 230 Million for the grid extension project due to be completed in 2018.
The Ethiopian government has stated that it intends to fund the entire cost of the dam by itself in order to prevent relying on foreign countries who may be brought under pressure by Egypt to withdraw their support.
Ethiopia has issued a bond targeted at Ethiopians in the country and abroad to that end. The turbines and associated electrical equipment of the hydropower plants costing about US$1.8 billion are reportedly financed by Chinese banks. This would leave US$3 billion to be financed by the Ethiopian government through other means.
The estimated US$4.6 billion construction cost, apparently excluding the cost of power transmission lines, corresponds to about 5% of Ethiopia’s gross domestic product of US$87 billion in 2017.
Flanking either side of the auxiliary un gated spillway at the center of the dam will be two power houses. The right will contain 10 x 375 MW Francis turbine-generators; the left power house will house 6 x 375 MW of the same turbine-generators. 14 of the 16 turbine-generators have been upgraded to 400 MW without changing the nameplate capacity (which is still at 375 MW), while two turbine-generators remained at 375 MW.
The total installed capacity with all turbine-generators will be 6,450 MW. The average annual flow of the Blue Nile being available for power generation is expected to be 1,547 m3/s (54,600 cu ft/s),[35] which gives rise to an annual expectation for power generation of 16,153 GWh, corresponding to a plant load factor (or capacity factor) of 28.6%.
The Francis turbines inside the power houses are installed in a vertical manner, raising 7 m (23 ft) above the ground level. For the foreseen operation between the minimum operating level and the full supply level, the water head available to the turbines will be 83–133 m (272–436 ft) high. A switching station will be located close to the main dam, where the generated power will be delivered to the national grid. Four 500 kV main power transmission lines were Completed in August 2017, all going to Holeta and then with several 400 kV lines to the metropolitan area of Addis Ababa. Two 400 kV lines are running from the dam to the Beles Hydroelectric Power Plant. Also planned are 500 kV high-voltage direct current lines.
 The Somali energy sector
Is one of the most underdeveloped in the region. Low electrification rates, especially in rural areas, high cost of power, high technical and commercial losses, dependency on imported petroleum products for electricity generation, and reliance on biomass resources for cooking mean that only a very small fraction of the Somali population has access to affordable, safe, reliable, and predictable energy services. Both public and private sector energy actors are highly capacity constrained, weak legal and regulatory frameworks, limited financing and investment, and lack of data for effective.
The electricity access rate is estimated at 40 percent, meaning that around 8 million Somalis lack access to electricity services. Urban access is estimated at 33 percent, and rural access at 4 percent. With an average household size of 5.9, this translates to approximately 1.8 million un-electrified households nationwide. Private sector players supply more than 90 percent of power in urban and peri-urban areas using local private mini-grids, having invested in diesel-based systems of between 500 kVA to 5000 kVA installed capacity per mini-grid. These mini-grids are usually zoned, with each operator building, owning, and operating the generation, transmission, distribution and maintenance, as well as collecting tariffs.
Somalia’s price of electricity can reach a maximum of $0.8/kWh – one of the costliest places in the world to buy power.

 Energy sector: current status
GENERATION CAPACITY:-
Installed Capacity: 106 MW.
Diesel: 100 MW.
Solar/Wind: 6 MW.
The energy mix in Somalia is completely dominated by locally available charcoal and firewood as the main sources of energy, and the consequent, near-term destruction of the vegetative cover is the most important energy and environmental problem facing the country. In part, the dominance of biomass is due to the impossibility of large-scale imports of energy; partly because of low effective demand due to drop in incomes after the collapse of the Somali State. Estimates of the energy needs met through firewood and charcoal vary between 80% and 90% over the whole country. As a consequence of the excessive reliance on biomass (in the form of firewood and charcoal) as a source of energy, biomass resources are being exhausted. The majority of Somalia’s population, perhaps 80% to 90%, relies on traditional biomass fuels, wood and charcoal, for cooking. Annual consumption of charcoal is estimated at around 4 million tons per year 1, a rate that is quickly exhausting Somalia’s few remaining forests. The prevalence of charcoal and wood for cooking also has some serious health impacts at the household level; these will be mitigated by the proposed introduction of modern cooking fuels and cleaner, more efficient and cost-effective end-use devices. The continuing illegal export of charcoal further contributes to the assault on the precarious and fragile vegetation.
A recent study conducted by Habitat 2 for the European Union (EU) surveyed the energy situation of Mogadishu and provided revealing data as well as insights into possible actions. The demand for energy for cooking, lighting, powering household appliances and for productive activities is very high, strong and costly (reportedly costing 30% of average incomes), but biomass supply is dwindling. Continued availability of biomass for cooking is not guaranteed, as this fuel source is becoming severely depleted near cities. (Actually, charcoal sold in Mogadishu originates far from the city.) The very poor in Mogadishu now use waste paper, plastic and other garbage as cooking fuels.
Electricity supply has suffered from over two decades of neglect, including absence of investments, due to both widespread insecurity and the disappearance of public resources and public oversight (rule of law). Wanton destruction and looting in addition to neglect have battered what little infrastructure there was before the collapse of 1991The result has been a huge regression and substantial delay and backlog in access to affordable, modern sources of energy. And this holds for areas of Puntland, Somaliland and Southern Somalia, all of which are now struggling to extend and improve energy supply, especially electricity.
Public supply of electricity ceased altogether after the state collapse as chaos, looting and destruction prevailed. Small companies emerged to supply power in their immediate vicinity at low voltage (LV). These small private generators supply their clients’ homes directly with wires without any transformation. This is still largely the only type of supply available, except for a few cities where grids have been rebuilt or were not destroyed. So, electric power is supplied under the most primitive and inefficient (costly) conditions, with wires running directly from the generating machines to the home of the customer. The distances are also often such that the tension (voltage) is noticeably lower upon arrival and appliances function badly while suffering damage (brownouts). Total installed and operational generating capacity in all of Somalia was estimated at about 100 MW in 2014 with an estimated 250,000 connections. 3 If these numbers are broadly indicative of the situation, they would imply a capacity of about 300W/connection at generation (much less at household level given the high distribution losses). There is significant potential in all Somali areas in terms of renewable and alternative sources of energy, such as solar and wind power, but so far, due to both security and funding problems, only very small, timid experiments have been conducted with solar and wind power. A systematic, in-depth evaluation of these resources needs to be conducted before large-scale projects can be designed to use these renewable resources for power generation. Petroleum products – essentially for transport and electricity generation and in smaller quantities for cooking and lighting – account for about 10% of total.
 Four main energy sector issues:-
1. Shortage or lack of qualified personnel
2. Limited access to and supply of electric
3. Excessive exploitation of biomass.
4. Low penetration of modern energy, especially in rural areas.

 Future implementation
Renewable Energy as a Viable Solution as near future electricity of Somalia Growth in renewable energy has been slower than renewable enthusiasts would have predicted twenty years ago. Carbon-based energy has a foothold in markets around the world and has historically offered quicker returns on investments. Across the world, and especially in Africa, however, there is a change afoot. According to the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century, investments in renewable energy in 2012 and 2013 were greater than the previous eight years combined for the Africa and Middle East region.
In the case of Somalia, renewable energy presents a way to address the current energy deficiencies and related problems in the country. Renewables are a particularly lucrative option for the country given their abundance, the increasing affordability of renewable products, and the fact that a market for renewable energy has already been established in the country.
• Abundance of Renewable Energy Sources in Somalia
Somalia is particularly well endowed in wind and solar energy resources. According to an analysis by Mukasa and colleagues for the African Development Bank Group (AfDB), the country has the highest potential of any African country for onshore wind power.
A recent World Bank document asserts that the potential of onshore and offshore wind power in Somalia along with tidal and wave power on the Somaliland coast could generate more power potential in the long term than the hydropower potential of Ethiopia.
Somalia is a generally windy country and although wind speeds vary seasonally, according to Abdilahi et al., who draw on data from NASA, wind speeds are sufficiently strong throughout the year to support wind generated energy.
A commonly cited statistic is that half of the country has wind speeds greater than 6 meters per second, which are excellent for electric energy production. More feasibility studies are needed to confirm these claims. One such advance is the effort to build four wind-monitoring stations in Somaliland, which were installed in different cities of Somaliland with support of USAID’s Partnership for Economic Growth. The data generated by these monitors are available online.
Solar energy is also a viable option throughout the country. Somalia gets on average 2,900 to 3,100 hours per year of sunlight.
It has one of the highest daily averages of total solar radiation in the world.
The yearly average solar radiation for Hargeisa is 6.4 kWh/m2/day.
Furthermore, the average yearly temperature in the country is 27 °C, a reasonable temperature to permit a satisfactory operation life of solar PV systems.
While there are other renewable energy options that could be pursued, such as bioenergy or hydroelectric plants, the plentiful resources of the wind and sun in the country are currently the most viable pursuits. Only one hydroelectric plant exists in the country.
It was built in Fenole in the south with a capacity of 4.6 MW but it is not currently working. The generation of power at the plant was reportedly unreliable due to seasonal low flows of the Jubba River but this information is difficult to validate.
Prior to 1989, there was an attempt to build a hydroelectric dam at Bardhere but these efforts came to a halt with the outbreak of conflict and were complicated by discussions with the upstream country, Ethiopia.
Given its proximity to the Rift Valley, geothermal may be another option. Unfortunately, very little data on geothermal options for Somalia exist. One study from 1982 posits that Somalia has the potential of 52 MW of energy from geothermal sources.
This is clearly an area that merits further research but is too underexplored
 Increasing Affordability of Renewable Energy
Options Wind and solar energy sources are not only plentiful in Somalia but they are also becoming a more financially attractive option. Renewable energy options have come down in cost in the last few years.
Due to a number of factors, including improvements in efficiency from technology and falling financing costs from reduced 9 | Powering Progress: The Potential of Renewable Energy in Somalia risk perceptions, prices for PV modules fell by more than half from 2008 to 2011 and projections of future prices are optimistic given the potential for further technological advancements.
Globally, for some microgrid options, the levelized cost of energy for diesel became equivalent to the levelized cost of solar PV in 2011.
if Global prices for wind turbines have also declined since a peak in 2008.
Falling costs of renewable energy imports in Somalia have followed the global trend.
Few studies simulating the comparative costs of energy generation between diesel and renewables for Somalia exist. One helpful exception is a study produced recently by Abdilahi et al.
using HOMER software to compare diesel-based systems to hybrid diesel, wind, and solar systems in Hargeisa. In their simulations, they find that diesel-based power systems are 1.5 times more expensive than hybrid systems that supplement diesel systems with wind and solar options. The initial capital costs for diesel generators continue to be lower than wind- or solar-powered systems in Somalia but considering a longer-term investment horizon makes renewable energy options more competitive. The Somaliland government contends that the difference in net revenues between diesel and wind systems favors diesel from installation through the second year of operation but by the third year, favors wind by an increasing magnitude over each consecutive year.
These comparisons make a strong case for wind and solar energy, and most experts suggest that depending on the quantity of energy in demand, the best use of renewable is in combination with diesel or other carbon-based fuel sources in order to maximize the benefits of each.
Diesel can offset the variations in power supply from wind and solar, while wind and solar can significantly reduce the dependence on petroleum, which reduces energy suppliers’ and clients’ exposure to fluctuations in fuel prices, there by
Increasing energy security.

 Conditions for Investment in Renewable Energy
Several advancements of conditions for investment in renewable energy have occurred in the last four years in Somalia. These include shifts in the private sector, particularly the energy sector, growing experience with renewable energy, and greater government support. This section explores these promising trends in detail.
 A strong private sector
One key point about Somalia is that development in the country has been predominately achieved through private investment and entrepreneurism. Unlike some fragile and conflict-affected states, donor activity has been relatively limited. With regards to energy, the lack of a state monopoly on the energy sector allows Somalia to avoid the painful step of unbundling state monopolies on energy that many other countries in the region have faced.
 Growing demand and a track record of success
Another condition for investment is the wide range of opportunities for renewable energy products. In Somalia, there is a spectrum of possibilities for renewable energy, from large-scale renewable energy generation projects to individual solar-powered lights. At the most inexpensive end of the spectrum, small standalone solar products have made it into Somali markets. Good examples are solar light bulbs, solar phone chargers, and solar stoves. There is ample potential for these products given the lack of electricity in rural and peri-urban areas and the high costs of electricity in urban areas. Although the least expensive options often have short battery and device life, there are more suppliers and innovators in this solar product market than ever before. Examples are Divi Power, which has developed a pay-to-own system for small solar-powered products, and Nokero, which is producing higher quality solar products for households and businesses, such as light bulbs and lighting for fishermen. The efforts to create markets for small solar devices are recognized in the REN21 2014 report as successful approaches in extending lighting and access to more modern forms of energy across the world.
Investment in larger renewable energy products in Somalia is also expanding, with a substantial number of projects completed in the last four years. Although some renewable projects larger than 250 kW have been attempted, the bulk of the investments have been focused on small projects like household installations. There are now more renewable energy companies that are selling standalone renewable energy products in the country that are suitable for organizations and households that can afford them. There are also a number of small-scale, wind-powered water pumps throughout Somalia for consumption and irrigation.75 Information about existing renewable energy projects is more readily available for Somaliland than other areas of the country. A survey conducted by the Adventist Development and Relief Agency (ADRA) in the region found that of 133 installations sampled of various kW capacity, the majority of systems were installed for households (59 percent); followed by institutions such as NGOs, health clinics and hospitals, and schools (29 percent); and businesses (12 percent).76 The table below shows a snapshot of the progress for renewable installations for 1.5 kW and above that has been made in the country. With these projects, awareness of renewable energy options is growing, creating more demand for renewable products.
 Progress in updating the energy sector
Consolidation of IPPs has been significant, at least in Somaliland and Puntland (information on this in areas of South Central Somalia is limited).
This consolidation will pave the way for more economies of scale.
While the urban grids in Somalia are not currently sophisticated enough to allow the synchronization of multiple micro grid systems run by IPPs, there is movement to conduct feasibility studies to revamp cities to have one central grid. For example, DANIDA has met with IPPs in Borama to work on a master plan to fix the grids there and in other Somaliland cities.
 Greater government support.
The growth of the renewable energy market is accompanied by interest on the part of Somali governments for development of the renewable energy sector. Investing in renewable energy is a part of the 2014–2015 Economic Recovery Plan produced by the Somali Federal Government.
In Puntland, the government listed renewable energy as one of four key priorities for the economy in its 2014–2016 plan. In its five-year plan, the Puntland government outlines a target of a 20 percent increase in the use of solar and wind energy over five years.
The Somaliland government has progressed the furthest with some help from international organizations. It produced an energy policy in 2010 and has completed a policy dialogue series bringing together stakeholders to outline goals and shared concerns.

EXAMPLES of RENEwABLE ENERGY PROJEcts IN SOMALIA
Project Onsite Organizations Energy kW
Borama Wind Turbines Aloog Energy Wind 900
Burao Wind Turbine Beder Power Wind 450
Erigavo Wind Turbines EPCO Wind 450
Las Anod Solar Farm Golis Energy/ LASCO Solar 250
Sheikh City Wind Farm Beder Power Wind/Solar 100
Egal International Airport in Hargeisa Golis Energy/ General Electric/ Somaliland Government Wind 100
Oog Wind Farm Beder Power/Golis Energy Wind 60
Aynabo Wind Turbines Beder Power/Golis Energy Wind 60
Berbera Regional Hospital Golis Energy Solar 60
Berbera City Wind Turbines Golis Energy/ Tayo/ Government Wind 60
Abaarso Tech outside of Hargeisa Golis Energy Wind 20
Qardho Hospital SECCCO Solar 18
Sheikh Referral Health Centre Golis Energy Solar 9
Abda Rural Health Clinic Golis Energy Solar 5
Godawayn Rural Health Clinic Golis Energy Solar 5
Dilla solar water pump Golis Energy Solar 5
Zeila solar water pump Golis Energy Solar 5

Power generation, distribution and transmission of grand Ethiopia renaissance dam.

The dam will contain 10 x 375 MW Francis turbine-generators; the left power house will house 6 x 375 MW of the same turbine-generators. 14 of the 16 turbine-generators have been upgraded to 400 MW without changing the nameplate, while two turbine-generators remained at 375 MW. The total installed capacity with all turbine-generators will be 6,450 MW. Ethiopia will export 500MW power to other African countries through transmission lines in near countries like Sudan and Kenya, that will cost $32 per Mw. We hope in its completion will change the face of East African power infrastructure. The project involves construction of a transmission line to evacuate power from Wolayta/Sodo in Ethiopia to Longonot in Kenya (about 1000 – 1200 km). The electricity will be generated primarily in hydropower plants in Ethiopia and exported to Kenya where electricity is generated from thermal power plants. Also Ethiopia and Djibouti interconnected through 230 kv there is a power flow up to 90 MW. Interconnections with the Republic of South and Sudan Somalia at the planning and study stages, Memoranda of Understanding on power export signed with Tanzania, Rwanda and Yemen.

 Political effect of grand Ethiopia renaissance dam.
1. Egypt fears a temporary reduction of water availability due to the filling of the dam and a permanent reduction because of evaporation from the reservoir, that forces Somalia to support one of the countries Egypt and Ethiopia and we know Egypt and Somalia has a long term relationship and they are members of Arab league.
2. Any misunderstanding in east African countries may stop the functioning of the dam, and may affect the overall power transmission and distributions.
3. Any conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia can course electricity effect.
4. The Somali power professionals will not get any employment to that dam since the people of Ethiopia is 10 times than Somali people.

CONCLUTION:

This is my first article l wrote in this topic l would like to publish another one for GRAND EHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM, Somalia has abundant energy sources those are full enough to all the country, as the all world bank, African Development statements says Somali can export electricity if the energy sources utilizes as it is.

Reference :
1.https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica/wherewework/somalia
2.https://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam
3.https://shuraako.org/sites/default/files/Renewable-Energy-Research-Report.pdf
4.http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/897671568189666641/pdf/Project-Information-Document-Integrated-Safeguards-Data-Sheet-Climate-Smart-Management-of-Grassland-Ecosystems-P166853.pdf
5.https://www.internationalrivers.org/sites/default/files/attached-files/pida_report_for_web.pdf
6.https://au.int/sites/default/files/documents/36067-doc-ethiopian_energy_sector_highlight_lome_togo_december_2017_final.pdf

 

Writer : 
Mohamed Abdullahi Ahmed (Doorshe)
doorshe2017@gmail.com
Dhaka, Bangladesh

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